Good news - this blog has now been turned into its own functioning website where tipsters and betting systems will get full blown reviews and ratings.
So you can see which are worth following and which not!
Go to www.honestbettingreviews.com for more info
Thanks
TigerW1
Monday, 23 February 2015
Friday, 20 February 2015
New Reviews - who can cut the mustard?
I am going to start reviewing some services to see if they cut the mustard and have the potential to be added to my portfolio.
Reviews will last for 3 months as standard, although some may take longer if there are a low volume of bets and therefore not enough action to judge the service properly.
Although all my current services are betting services, I am interested in forex and stock market services so I will giving those a go too.
Over the next few days I will post summaries of the services I am going to be trialing, what they are about and claimed results.
And of course most importantly - do the results in live trialing match the claimed results and can the service turn a profit?
Watch this space...
Reviews will last for 3 months as standard, although some may take longer if there are a low volume of bets and therefore not enough action to judge the service properly.
Although all my current services are betting services, I am interested in forex and stock market services so I will giving those a go too.
Over the next few days I will post summaries of the services I am going to be trialing, what they are about and claimed results.
And of course most importantly - do the results in live trialing match the claimed results and can the service turn a profit?
Watch this space...
New *Even More* Streamlined Approach!
OK, so I have had another think about things over the last couple of weeks and have decided I need to streamline further. My turnover per day is still too high - some days it is over 3k(!) and when you get a bad day that can wipe out far too much of your bank.
So it is goodbye to the following:-
Price Power
Racing Professionals AW service
Their strike rate is just too low to consider following these two. With the Racing Professionals, I have real concerns that the profit since going live is nothing like their previous results pre- going live.
They also just seem to back all Godolphin selections on the AW. A good policy that may be but I don't really need to pay a subscription for that! I can just click on the Godolphin website and see their runners for the day!
They do put up other selections but my worry is they are just operating a trainer-based selection system which in my experience is questionable in the long run. Plus it seems they have started up another website with astounding results. What's that old phrase about if something seems too good to be true...
With Price Power, I can't argue with their long-term record but sadly the strike rate is just too low and I can't seem to get anything like their advised prices with BSP, so I have to bite the bullet with this one. But I wish them all the best, a good and honest service.
So the new list is now:
Banker Bets
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf)
Dark Horses
Isiris MYC
Morning Value Service
Racing Consultants
Tim Russell Private Service:
Value Seeker
Win Form Pro
Nine services in all - is there perhaps one more to make it a round ten? Lol no I must stick to this and not get involved in adding any more for the time being. Too many services is what got me into trouble in the first place.
RESULTS UPDATE:
Apologies for the lack of results updates over the last couple of weeks whilst I have been pondering what to do about my betting portfolio, but I will give a short update now.
The overall picture has been an improvement, particularly by the horse racing services. Hats off to MVS and the Value Seeker in particular who have been in sparkling form.
Sadly Banker Bets have hit something of a horror run and have therefore wiped out a lot of their previous profits and also those I had made on the geegeez!
Sods law I think they call it. Anyway, hopefully that was just a blip and they will return to winning ways again now. The bank can build very quickly with a run of 10 or 15 winners.
One last thing to add - I will start doing running totals on a daily basis starting from today to make it easier for people to see how the services are doing. Plus I will include my pounds/point for each service and the bank I am using.
Good luck all, hopefully this is the beginning of something special...
So it is goodbye to the following:-
Price Power
Racing Professionals AW service
Their strike rate is just too low to consider following these two. With the Racing Professionals, I have real concerns that the profit since going live is nothing like their previous results pre- going live.
They also just seem to back all Godolphin selections on the AW. A good policy that may be but I don't really need to pay a subscription for that! I can just click on the Godolphin website and see their runners for the day!
They do put up other selections but my worry is they are just operating a trainer-based selection system which in my experience is questionable in the long run. Plus it seems they have started up another website with astounding results. What's that old phrase about if something seems too good to be true...
With Price Power, I can't argue with their long-term record but sadly the strike rate is just too low and I can't seem to get anything like their advised prices with BSP, so I have to bite the bullet with this one. But I wish them all the best, a good and honest service.
So the new list is now:
Banker Bets
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf)
Dark Horses
Isiris MYC
Morning Value Service
Racing Consultants
Tim Russell Private Service:
Value Seeker
Win Form Pro
Nine services in all - is there perhaps one more to make it a round ten? Lol no I must stick to this and not get involved in adding any more for the time being. Too many services is what got me into trouble in the first place.
RESULTS UPDATE:
Apologies for the lack of results updates over the last couple of weeks whilst I have been pondering what to do about my betting portfolio, but I will give a short update now.
The overall picture has been an improvement, particularly by the horse racing services. Hats off to MVS and the Value Seeker in particular who have been in sparkling form.
Sadly Banker Bets have hit something of a horror run and have therefore wiped out a lot of their previous profits and also those I had made on the geegeez!
Sods law I think they call it. Anyway, hopefully that was just a blip and they will return to winning ways again now. The bank can build very quickly with a run of 10 or 15 winners.
One last thing to add - I will start doing running totals on a daily basis starting from today to make it easier for people to see how the services are doing. Plus I will include my pounds/point for each service and the bank I am using.
Good luck all, hopefully this is the beginning of something special...
Tuesday, 3 February 2015
New Streamlined Approach
Monday 2nd February 2015
Win Form Pro: no bets £0
Morning Value Service: 13.9 £347.50
Racing Consultants: -1.5pts -£52.50
Price Power: -6pts -£150
The Racing Professionals AW Service: 0pts £0
Banker Bets: no bets £0
Isiris MYC: -14.5pts -£362.50
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf) 1.5pts £82.50
Tim Russell Private Service: 1.88pts £188
Value Seeker: -3pts -£105
Dark Horses: 4.8pts £144
TOTAL: £92
The positive start to February continues and it feels a bit more manageable with a reduced number of services.
Well done to the MVS for a nice set of winners on the day. Long may it continue!
Win Form Pro: no bets £0
Morning Value Service: 13.9 £347.50
Racing Consultants: -1.5pts -£52.50
Price Power: -6pts -£150
The Racing Professionals AW Service: 0pts £0
Banker Bets: no bets £0
Isiris MYC: -14.5pts -£362.50
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf) 1.5pts £82.50
Tim Russell Private Service: 1.88pts £188
Value Seeker: -3pts -£105
Dark Horses: 4.8pts £144
TOTAL: £92
The positive start to February continues and it feels a bit more manageable with a reduced number of services.
Well done to the MVS for a nice set of winners on the day. Long may it continue!
Monday, 2 February 2015
January Review
I am just going to review from when I restarted this blog rather than the whole of January because that was when I formalised records properly.
January Totals
Win Form Pro: -£200
Morning Value Service: -£753.75
Racing Consultants: £0
Price Power: -£1295
The Racing Professionals AW Service: £505
BTTS and Win: -£617.50
Banker Bets: £193
Isiris MYC: £38
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf): £663.50
Steve Lewis Hamilton: -£650
Tim Russell Private Service: -£1018
Value Seeker: £824.25
Dark Horses: £279
Value Football Bets: -£820
JANUARY TOTAL: -£2851.50
So obviously the first thing to recognise is that it has been a very disappointing start since I recommenced this blog.
It is slightly mitigated by the fact that I was well in profit for the earlier part of January, so things aren't quite as bad as they seem above. But we can't get away from the fact that it's been a dismal couple of weeks.
The big question is: should I change anything?
There is always a tendency when you encounter a severe downturn like this to lose faith and abandon things. In fact I think that's what most gamblers do and is one of the main reasons why 98% of people lose at this game. They keep switching around systems and strategies as soon as they hit a losing run so are basically just running up losses again and again.
You have to recognise that gambling is a long-term strategy and you are not going to win all the time - there will be losing runs.
The key point to evaluate is whether any of the services have lost their edge or value.
You could take the Morning Value Service, for instance, and say it has had a bad month and before that had only been bumping along for the last few months.
But then you have to remember that it has made over £120,000 to £50 stakes over the last 3 years so one bad month does not a bad service make. It is far too early to tell whether they have lost their edge - the downturn is well within the statistical margin of error. If it continued this way for another 3 or 4 months, then you could seriously question its viability. But for moment I am happy to continue with it.
The same could be said for the Price Power. You could look at the results above and be tempted to throw in the towel. But then you consider they had winners at 66/1, 33/1, two at 25/1 and a host in the 10-20/1 range before that in January. And they came within a whisker of landing a 120/1 winner. Overall they were still nearly 25 points up in January, so I am not prepared to ditch them just yet, despite the disappointing run over the last couple of weeks.
Tim Russell had also built up over £700 profit prior to his recent downturn, so I will stick with him too.
However, I have thought about things very carefully and decided to take action on some of the services in my portfolio.
Before I get onto those though, I want to elucidate my main criteria for selecting services and this will perhaps give a better rationale for the changes I intend to make:
In short, services I select must:
January Totals
Win Form Pro: -£200
Morning Value Service: -£753.75
Racing Consultants: £0
Price Power: -£1295
The Racing Professionals AW Service: £505
BTTS and Win: -£617.50
Banker Bets: £193
Isiris MYC: £38
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf): £663.50
Steve Lewis Hamilton: -£650
Tim Russell Private Service: -£1018
Value Seeker: £824.25
Dark Horses: £279
Value Football Bets: -£820
JANUARY TOTAL: -£2851.50
So obviously the first thing to recognise is that it has been a very disappointing start since I recommenced this blog.
It is slightly mitigated by the fact that I was well in profit for the earlier part of January, so things aren't quite as bad as they seem above. But we can't get away from the fact that it's been a dismal couple of weeks.
The big question is: should I change anything?
There is always a tendency when you encounter a severe downturn like this to lose faith and abandon things. In fact I think that's what most gamblers do and is one of the main reasons why 98% of people lose at this game. They keep switching around systems and strategies as soon as they hit a losing run so are basically just running up losses again and again.
You have to recognise that gambling is a long-term strategy and you are not going to win all the time - there will be losing runs.
The key point to evaluate is whether any of the services have lost their edge or value.
You could take the Morning Value Service, for instance, and say it has had a bad month and before that had only been bumping along for the last few months.
But then you have to remember that it has made over £120,000 to £50 stakes over the last 3 years so one bad month does not a bad service make. It is far too early to tell whether they have lost their edge - the downturn is well within the statistical margin of error. If it continued this way for another 3 or 4 months, then you could seriously question its viability. But for moment I am happy to continue with it.
The same could be said for the Price Power. You could look at the results above and be tempted to throw in the towel. But then you consider they had winners at 66/1, 33/1, two at 25/1 and a host in the 10-20/1 range before that in January. And they came within a whisker of landing a 120/1 winner. Overall they were still nearly 25 points up in January, so I am not prepared to ditch them just yet, despite the disappointing run over the last couple of weeks.
Tim Russell had also built up over £700 profit prior to his recent downturn, so I will stick with him too.
However, I have thought about things very carefully and decided to take action on some of the services in my portfolio.
Before I get onto those though, I want to elucidate my main criteria for selecting services and this will perhaps give a better rationale for the changes I intend to make:
In short, services I select must:
- Have an established track record over a number of years demonstrating a clear edge over the market - the longer the track record the better;
- This record must be proofed by a reliable source;
- They must be clearly profitable at Betfair SP. This does not mean that just because you can't get the advised prices of a service, it is not worth following - just that BSP must still return a good profit.
- No loss recovery staking systems! It must be profitable at level stakes or it is not actually a successful betting strategy - it is purely the staking system that is producing the profits. And eventually a disastrous losing run will be hit - that is a statistical certainty.
The above four are essential. Without these, basically you should not be following a service because you are just chancing your arm. And you must be able to use Betfair because any system that works well will eventually have you bookie accounts closed or limited - that is a guarantee. And then if you can't work things at Betfair you are basically finished.
I then have some criteria that whilst not essential, are important and give a service extra weighting:
- A high strike rate. This will make a massive difference to the size of bank you use and therefore your stakes and crucially, how quickly you can build your bank.
- High volume. This allows your bank to grow much more quickly.
- A good ROI - whilst not as important as the above two, the higher the ROI over a long period, the larger the edge over the bookies/market.
On the basis of this, I am making the following changes:
BTTS & Win:
This fails on two counts - firstly, it is not profitable at Betfair. This is because Betfair do not offer this market on the majority of matches! So you have no option but to use a bookie. And sadly most of the bets are with one or two bookies, meaning that the better the service does, the more likely account closures become. Then you are restricted to using odds below the advised prices and missing the value.
The other aspect that troubles me about this service is the bank required. The recent revision of the previous 50 point bank to 100 means that growing this bank is likely to take a long time. Perhaps you could double it once a season, but for me coupled with the above, this just knocks the service out and means I will be dropping it.
I should end by saying I still think this is a good service and has made profit for me. But in the long term I can't see it being practical for me and account closures seem just a matter of time.
Steve Lewis Hamilton
I have been with Steve's tipping service a long time and respect his expertise but am beginning to question its profitability. It seems to have struggled lately and has a very low frequency of bets - just 3.7 per week on average.
Looking at the results over the last seven years, he has made 650 points profit, which is no mean feet. However, with average stakes of 1.8 units per bet, that works out at just over 50 points a year to 1 point level stakes. With a considerable bank size needed, I just can't see this one really ever making a huge profit for me. 100 points a year at £50 is £5,000 - a nice profit but not life changing and with the high subscription costs added in just doesn't worth continuing with for me.
Value Football Bets
I probably never should have become involved with this one in the first place as it breaks one of my cardinal rules - its track record is far too short being just a couple of months. Although I have a lot of respect for Kevin Laverick, I think this should be a trial service with much reduced stakes rather than a full blown part of my portfolio.
The big recent losses illustrate that this is a work in progress and in some ways I am kicking myself for following the hype rather than trialing it for a sustained period or waiting a couple of years for established results.
Conclusion
So there you have it. Perhaps fairly drastic action taken with three services removed, but I think if I am honest they never should have been part of my portfolio in the first place.
I have to be clear in my mind about what I am looking for: established long-term services with the ability to rapidly and consistently grow a betting bank.
Another small change I am making is to start backing Price Power each way rather than win only and reduce the stakes accordingly. They advise each way so that's what I should be doing, plus it will ease the pain of the losing runs.
So, hopefully February will be a better month with these changes made and we can back on the road to success...
A Better Day
Sunday 1st February 2015
Win Form Pro: no bets £0
Morning Value Service: no bets £0
Racing Consultants: 4pts £140
Price Power: -6pts -£150
The Racing Professionals AW Service: -1pt -£25
BTTS and Win: 7.3 £219
Banker Bets: £472
Isiris MYC: -1.5pts -£37.50
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf) 26pts £260
Steve Lewis Hamilton: 1pt £50
Tim Russell Private Service: no bets £0
Value Seeker: no bets £0
Dark Horses: -2pts -£60
Value Football Bets: -2pts -£200
TOTAL: £668.50
A better day to start February after January's horror show.
The B's continue to impress me - Banker Bets had a superb January nearly doubling my betting bank. It is a service I have very high hopes for indeed.
Betting Bias also returned a nice profit on the golf yet again with McIlroy winning and Gallacher placing in Dubai and Harold Varner placing at the Panama Open.
A review of January will follow...
Win Form Pro: no bets £0
Morning Value Service: no bets £0
Racing Consultants: 4pts £140
Price Power: -6pts -£150
The Racing Professionals AW Service: -1pt -£25
BTTS and Win: 7.3 £219
Banker Bets: £472
Isiris MYC: -1.5pts -£37.50
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf) 26pts £260
Steve Lewis Hamilton: 1pt £50
Tim Russell Private Service: no bets £0
Value Seeker: no bets £0
Dark Horses: -2pts -£60
Value Football Bets: -2pts -£200
TOTAL: £668.50
A better day to start February after January's horror show.
The B's continue to impress me - Banker Bets had a superb January nearly doubling my betting bank. It is a service I have very high hopes for indeed.
Betting Bias also returned a nice profit on the golf yet again with McIlroy winning and Gallacher placing in Dubai and Harold Varner placing at the Panama Open.
A review of January will follow...
Respite
Saturday 31st January 2015
Win Form Pro: no bets £0
Morning Value Service: -12.15pts -£303.75
Racing Consultants: 2.5pts £87.50
Price Power: -6pts -£150
The Racing Professionals AW Service: 1pt £25
BTTS and Win: -7.25 -£217.50
Banker Bets: £543
Isiris MYC: 1pt £25
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf) -2pts -£110
Steve Lewis Hamilton: 0 pts £0
Tim Russell Private Service: -2pts -£200
Value Seeker: 4.2pts £147
Dark Horses: 6pts £180
Value Football Bets: 0pts £0
TOTAL: £26.25
A mixed day, ended up with a small profit. Suppose I should be grateful for that given what's happened lately!
Win Form Pro: no bets £0
Morning Value Service: -12.15pts -£303.75
Racing Consultants: 2.5pts £87.50
Price Power: -6pts -£150
The Racing Professionals AW Service: 1pt £25
BTTS and Win: -7.25 -£217.50
Banker Bets: £543
Isiris MYC: 1pt £25
Bettingbias (horse racing and golf) -2pts -£110
Steve Lewis Hamilton: 0 pts £0
Tim Russell Private Service: -2pts -£200
Value Seeker: 4.2pts £147
Dark Horses: 6pts £180
Value Football Bets: 0pts £0
TOTAL: £26.25
A mixed day, ended up with a small profit. Suppose I should be grateful for that given what's happened lately!
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